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Breaking Down the November _ Report and Volatility in _ Markets

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By Ryan Lange - , CAIA, Senior Investment Strategist

After a couple years __ strong equity returns with __ volatility, investors are being of the risk of _ in the global stock __. The global equity markets _ moved lower since the of the third quarter _ volatility moving back up __ normal levels.

There have been four narratives impacting the equity __ over the past couple __ months: 

1. The first area of was the midterm election _ passed in early November _ limited surprises.
   
   
2. A large number of _ reported quarterly earnings in _ October through early November. __, results were strong with _ from the lower corporate rate this year. However, __ increasing number of company teams are providing a outlook for the coming .
   
   
3. Investors have been increasingly __ about the path of rate increases from the __ Reserve. If interest rates increased to levels that too high, it would _ push the economy into _ recession faster. This week __ saw the first inversion __ the yield curve. That __ when short-term interest rates _ higher than longer-term interest . As of today, the 3-_ U.S. Treasury rate (2.76%) __ higher than the 5-year _._. Treasury rate (2.74%). The _ time this happened was _ 2005.
   
   
4. Global trade concerns have _ increased over the past _ of months. After multiple _ of tariffs were added __ various imported goods this _, many investors were hopeful _ the trade disputes would __ resolved. The most recent _ of a 10% tariff __ $200 billion of goods _ China is scheduled to to 25% in January. __ addition, there are talks __ adding tariffs on another $250 billion in goods from .

The global economy continues __ be strong in this _ economic expansion following the _ crisis. We saw another _ monthly employment report that _ 155,000 new jobs in month of November and 3.1% year-over-year wage growth. The 155,000 new jobs in November _ the total for the _ to 2.1 million. After _ years of strong gains __ employment, there is the _ of running out of workers to enter the _. This is highlighted in low 3.7% unemployment rate. __ would expect the employment to continue to slow _ as we go forward.

There continues to be _ in both the equity fixed income markets. The equity prices have brought back down to attractive _. Also, the increase in rates makes the fixed _ market attractive again. Keeping _ focus on the long-term _ always remain important as short-term moves can be _ lot of noise. Make _ your investment portfolio is in a way to _ your investment goals without _ unintended risks. Our wealth can help guide you __ this process.

To reach a member __ our Wealth Management team, _ visit our website at https://gwb-online.com/bnk/digital/index.html/wealth-management/overview/

 

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